By Ali Hassan Dayib
As usual with my articles, I will endeavour to paint a clear picture about Ajuran National Council verdict on Ajuran county positions in 2022 general election.
It is not must that you buy into my school of thought.
It is human nature to have opposers and proposers hence the brouhaha that greeted the verdict.
In any case,majority have their way while the minority have their say.
Now sit proper,let me school you on some basic concepts. Fact is, I have more than two decades of professional classroom expertise under my belt.
The Ajuran political SGR has left the station.Unlike the SGR which is manned by Chinese, it is driven by Ajuran Nation Council chairman assisted by his panel.
It has sixty(60) wagons:21 ANC and 39 ACE.
Waqle and Walmaga tickets fully booked and on board. Ajuran =Waqle and Walmaga.
Let us not swerve it off its rails to the dusty Wajir- Moyale road through Buna- Bute or Buna- Korondille roads.
It can’t and won’t move an inch.
ANC with all its wisdom and hindsight had decided that Ajuran community in Wajir county vies for Senate and Women Representative . Bingo!
All communities, past and present have systems and structures to govern themselves.
Even the animals in the forest have some order.
Monkeys, the cleverest of them all, organise themselves in troops and each troop is led by a leader.
Folks, let us pause and cogitate.
It therefore behoves ANC as supreme organ to issue a verdict on Ajuran political roadmap. As a matter of fact,the silent majority outside social media are at ease with the verdict.Please maintain your posture. Do not fidget, lest you fall off the chair .
I am not a member of Ajuran National Council but from where I sit,it must have done a lot of soul searching and weighed all options before arriving at the decision.
At this juncture, let me delve into possible reasons.
a)That the decision for an Ajuran to have a shot at gubernatorial seat should be community driven as opposed to individual.It is not a leisure walk in the park.
b)That such decision should be elaborate, consultative and thorough.
It should be borne out of series of meetings to sensitize the community to own the idea and drive the process without coercion.
c)That the interested candidate should at least cough half a billion shillings as campaign war chest.
This is not pocket money or loose change.
One trip across the width and breadth of the six constituencies will literally burn Ksh 5-10 million ostensibly to ‘greet’ the elders, women group and youth.
Ignoring them or failure to play ball will cause serious repercussions.
Logistics alone will consume half the amount with fuel- guzzlers forming the largest part of the convoy.
Add breakfast,lunch and supper to the bill.
Mark you, the governor- designate and his entourage will not sleep on mats.Wait a minute,hired master ululators(women) dressed in marching colourful dresses must be on hand to welcome the governor and pierce the ears of rally attendees at the delight of the big man,especially when he is on the floor.
Nothing comes for free. If you think they are idle women, you need your long ears pinched with a plier .
d)Ajuran votes VS others.
2017 Case Scenario.
There were several line ups based on party affiliations and interests.
Wajeerians voted accordingly save for senator and women rep.
MoU was thrown out of the window.It was business unusual.
Senator Abdullah Ali (Kabreta) was largely propelled to Senate by Ajuran vote block, his uncles, needless to mention and few pockets of voters in Wajir.
Ajuran votes have now surpassed 38K due to ongoing voter registration.
Should the centre not hold,the votes will be split and scattered hence rendered insignificant.
Convincing them otherwise will be an uphill task.
e)Listening to the ground.
It is highly likely that the current governor, HE Ahmed Werar, will pull all stops to defend his seat. It goes without saying that Ogadens will not allow to deputise AJ gubernatorial candidate.
From the look of things, Degodia will mostly likely front at least two candidates unless a second Desheg Declaration happens which endorsed Ahmedjir as sole Degodia candidate in 2013.
Lest you forget, Ajuran is the third largest tribe.
The other two tribes will no doubt throw their weight behind their strong candidates.
Only weak candidates from both groups will offer themselves as Ajuran’s deputies.
Jubaland politics in Wajir context: The less I say about it, the better.Please join the dots.
My parting shot: An appeal has been lodged to contest ANC verdict slated for hearing on 12&13th February 2022.
In order to safeguard its integrity and credibility, *ANC should not blink*
Any attempt to arm twist ANC is tantamount to signing its death warrant.
The Writer is a political commentator based in Wajir County.
