By Ali Roba

Kenya’s electoral dynamics have long been shaped by high voter registration in Mount Kenya and other politically active regions. However, the pastoralist counties—Garissa, Wajir, Mandera, Marsabit, Isiolo, Tana River, Lamu, Turkana, Samburu, West Pokot, Kajiado, Laikipia, Narok, and Baringo—hold vast untapped electoral potential.

Due to their nomadic lifestyle and lack of civic engagement infrastructure, voter registration in these counties has remained low. With targeted mobilization, however, these regions could significantly increase their influence in national politics.

As of the 2022 General Election, these 14 counties had 3,069,916 registered voters, well below their potential compared to their combined population of 10,337,196 (using the 2009 census for Garissa, Wajir, and Mandera, and the 2019 census for the rest). If at least 50% of their population registered as voters, the number would rise to 5,168,598, an increase of over 2.1 million voters.

A Heartfelt Thank You for a Historic Presidential Visit to Mandera

We give all praise and thanks to Almighty Allah for the successful and momentous visit of His Excellency, the President, to Mandera yesterday. It was an honor to host him, and we are deeply grateful for the… pic.twitter.com/IOsUtNx7SS

— HE. Capt. Ali Ibrahim Roba, EGH, MP (@aliiroba) February 5, 2025

Counties such as Garissa (201,473 registered voters, 32.34% of its 2009 population), Wajir (207,758, 31.40%), and Mandera (217,030, 21.16%) are significantly under-registered. If these counties reach 50% voter registration, Garissa would gain 110,000 new voters, Wajir 123,000, and Mandera 295,000. Similarly, Turkana, with 238,528 registered voters out of a 926,976 population, could add over 225,000 new voters. Narok and Kajiado, both with over 1.1 million people, remain well below their potential.

By 2027, with a 10% growth in voter registration, the current 3,069,916 voters would rise to 3,376,908 under normal circumstances. However, if the 50% registration goal is achieved, the total number of voters would reach 5,685,458, an increase of 2.3 million voters. This could completely shift the balance of power in Kenya’s elections.

Mount Kenya currently has over 5 million registered voters, giving it a strong political influence. However, if pastoralist counties organize and mobilize effectively, they could neutralize Mount Kenya’s dominance and secure greater political representation and development funding.

Mobilizing the pastoralist voter is not just an electoral strategy but a path to empowerment. A structured voter registration campaign, civic education, and mobile registration centers could transform these counties into a decisive electoral force. With just 2.3 million additional voters by 2027, pastoralist regions can match or even surpass Mount Kenya’s voting power. The opportunity is there—will we seize it?

The Writer is Former Governor of Mandera, Current Senator , and UDM Party leader.